Profiling auction assets and/or participants to predict auction outcome

ABSTRACT

A profile of one or more users of the online auction environment is developed. The profile of each user can be based at least in part on historical auction activity of that user. An auction of the online auction environment that is in progress is monitored. A prediction is determined as to whether the auction will be successful based at least in part on the profile of the one or more users that are participating in the auction.

RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application claims benefit of priority to:

Provisional U.S. Patent Application No. 61/852,399, filed Mar. 15, 2013;

Provisional U.S. Patent Application No. 61/852,086, filed Mar. 15, 2013;and

Provisional U.S. Patent Application No. 61/852,087, filed Mar. 15, 2013;

Each of the aforementioned priority applications being herebyincorporated by reference in their respective entirety.

TECHNICAL FIELD

Examples described herein relate to online auctions, and morespecifically to a system and method for profiling auction assets and/orparticipants to predict an auction outcome.

BACKGROUND

Numerous online auction forums exist that enable consumers and sellersto transact for various kinds of items, such as collectibles,electronics and other goods or services. As online auctions become morecommonplace, more expensive assets are transacted through the auctionforums. In particular, assets such as real property items are regularlyexchanged by way of online auctions, often in situations whereparticipants bid on assets using online tools and research.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 illustrates an example system for implementing an auction forumin which profiling is used to determine information for predictingauction outcomes.

FIG. 2 illustrates an example method for determining a bidder profilefor purpose of providing predictive information for an auction.

FIG. 3 illustrates an example method for determining an asset profilefor purpose of providing predictive information for an auction.

FIG. 4 illustrates an example method for providing predictiveinformation to a seller for purpose of enabling the seller to takeaction to successfully complete the auction.

FIG. 5 illustrates an example method for detecting bidder activity thatcan be correlated to bidder interests for purpose of predicting auctionactivity.

FIG. 6 illustrates an example of a dashboard for use by a seller tomanage one or more auctions.

FIG. 7 illustrates an example of an auction interface that incorporatesthe use of predictive information.

FIG. 8 is a block diagram that illustrates a computer system upon whichsome embodiments described herein may be implemented.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Examples described herein include a system and method for profilingauction assets and/or participants to predict an auction outcome.

More specifically, examples described herein pertain to conducting anauction in an online auction environment. In an embodiment, a profile ofone or more users of the online auction environment is developed. Theprofile of each user can be based at least in part on historical auctionactivity of that user. An auction hosted in the online auctionenvironment is monitored. A prediction is determined as to whether theauction will be successful based at least in part on the profile of theone or more users that are participating in the auction.

In a variation, one or more predictive reserve prices are determined forthe auction based at least in part on the profile of one or more usersthat are participating in the auction. By way of example, the determinedreserve price(s) can be probabilistic.

In another variation, a predicted transaction price (e.g., top orwinning bid) is determined for the auction based at least in part on theprofile of one or more users that are participating in the auction. Alsoas an example, the determined transaction price can be probabilistic.

According to another embodiment, an auction is conducted for an onlineauction environment. A set of characteristics are determined for a givenasset of the auction, and asset profile information is determined forthe given asset based on the set of characteristics. In particular, theasset profile information can be determined from one or more priorauctions provided at the online auction environment. The asset profileinformation can be based on one or more corresponding assets, each ofwhich are deemed to be comparable to the given asset based on the one ormore corresponding assets each having a set of characteristics that aresimilar to the set of characteristics of the given asset of the auction.A prediction is made as to whether the auction of the given asset willbe successful based at least in part on the asset profile information.

By way of example, the prediction can be (i) probabilistic, include soas to multiple possible outcomes and probabilities, (ii) value based, toindicate specific values, and/or (iii) binary (“yes” or “no”) orqualitative (“good” or “lower reserve price”).

In a variation, the asset profile information is used to determine areserve price of the auction. By way of example, the determined reserveprice can be probabilistic.

In another example, one or more auctions of a seller are monitored. Aninterface is provided that includes auction event information for eachof the one or more auctions of the seller. As an example, the auctionevent information can include a top bid, and an indication as to whethera reserve price has been met. Predictive information is determined foreach of the one or more auctions of the seller. Information is displayedbased on the predictive information using the interface. The displayedinformation can indicate a probability as to whether the auction will besuccessful.

Still further, in some embodiments, non-bidding activity of one or morebidders of an auction is detected over an online interface of theauction environment. The activity of the one or more bidders is detectedwhile the one or more bidders are participating in the auction. Thenon-bidding activity is correlated to an interest metric for theauction. Information is communicated that is based on the interestmetric. The information can be communicated to either a seller or abidder of the auction

A user can be a participant of the auction by performing some activityin connection with that auction, such as bidding, registering for theauction, or actively monitoring the auction (e.g., viewing a web page ofthe auction).

In at least some embodiments, an online auction environment can beprovided from a website where an auction is conducted.

An auction is successful if it ends with a transaction, meaning atransaction price has been determined from the auction, and thetransaction has been completed (e.g., exchange of funds and item beingauctioned) after the auction is completed. In typical cases, asuccessful auction is provided by a user providing a bid that exceeds areserve price of the seller (if one is specified). A successful auctioncan also occur when the highest bid fails to exceed the reserve price,but the seller agreed to accept the higher bid even though the reservewas not met. Additionally, instances can occur when a bidder or sellerfails to follow through on the transaction after the auction iscomplete. For example, the highest bidder may renege on the auctionafter it is complete. In real-estate, a closing process may follow theauction which can result in the transaction falling through when one orboth parties to the transaction back out. Thus, in some instances, thesuccessful auction will also mean that the highest bidder will havetheir bid accepted (e.g., above reserve, or below reserve and acceptedby seller) and will also follow through on the transaction after theauction is complete.

The profile of individual users can include a quantitative and/orqualitative assessment of each user as a bidder, seller or otherparticipant (e.g., viewer) of auctions. According to one aspect, theprofile can include or correspond to a score, which quantitativelyassesses the user in an auction role (buyer, seller). For example, thescore of the user can assess the quality of the user as a bidder.

In one aspect, a user registers for an auction by performing aregistration action through the online auction environment. Theregistration action can correspond to the user providing log-ininformation or user identifier through, for example, a network sitewhere the online auction environment is provided. Alternatively, theregistration action can correspond to the user sending a communicationto the online auction environment or seller to request participation ina particular auction.

Additionally, in some examples a user can participate in an auction as abidder by registering for the specific auction. For example, a user mayhave an account for an auction forum that grants the user the right toseparately register for individual auctions. When the user identifies anauction of interest, the user can follow a sign-in or registrationprocess that identifies the user as a bidder for the particular auction.

A user can participate in an auction as a bidder by monitoring theauction, and showing interest as a potential bidder. For example, abidder can correspond to a user who registers for an auction. Such auser can correspond to a bidder whether the user actually provided a bidor not in the auction.

Among other benefits, examples described herein achieve a technicaleffect by providing enhanced user interfaces to computing devices thatincorporate predictive information to guide participant conduct, such assetting reserve price or anticipating successful outcome. Further, thepredictive information can be computationally determined throughanalysis of database records of prior auction activity. Such analysiscan determine profile information for bidders as well as assets, andsuch profile information can in turn be used to make predictivedeterminations for guiding user actions in the online auction. In thisway, a technical effect is achieved, through, for example, theelectronic publication of content that communicates predictiveinformation for guiding participant behavior.

One or more embodiments described herein provide that methods,techniques and actions performed by a computing device are performedprogrammatically, or as a computer-implemented method. Programmaticallymeans through the use of code, or computer-executable instructions. Aprogrammatically performed step may or may not be automatic.

One or more embodiments described herein may be implemented usingprogrammatic modules or components. A programmatic module or componentmay include a program, a subroutine, a portion of a program, or asoftware component or a hardware component capable of performing one ormore stated tasks or functions. As used herein, a module or componentcan exist on a hardware component independently of other modules orcomponents. Alternatively, a module or component can be a shared elementor process of other modules, programs or machines.

Furthermore, one or more embodiments described herein may be implementedthrough the use of instructions that are executable by one or moreprocessors. These instructions may be carried on a computer-readablemedium. Machines shown or described with figures below provide examplesof processing resources and computer-readable mediums on whichinstructions for implementing embodiments of the invention can becarried and/or executed. In particular, the numerous machines shown withembodiments of the invention include processor(s) and various forms ofmemory for holding data and instructions. Examples of computer-readablemediums include permanent memory storage devices, such as hard drives onpersonal computers or servers. Other examples of computer storagemediums include portable storage units, such as CD or DVD units, flashor solid state memory (such as carried on many cell phones and consumerelectronic devices) and magnetic memory. Computers, terminals, networkenabled devices (e.g., mobile devices such as cell phones) are allexamples of machines and devices that utilize processors, memory, andinstructions stored on computer-readable mediums. Additionally,embodiments may be implemented in the form of computer-programs, or acomputer usable carrier medium capable of carrying such a program.

Auction Architecture

FIG. 1 illustrates an example system for implementing an auction forumin which profiling is used to determine information for predictingauction outcomes. A system 100 such as shown by an example of FIG. 1 canbe implemented in connection with an online auction service for any typeof commercial item, such as, for example, real property items, (e.g.,homes, real-estate notes, commercial property), motor vehicles (e.g.,automobiles, motorcycles, boats), consumer electronics, collectibles, orclothing. However, examples recognize that predictive information canserve a particular benefit in instances when the asset of thetransaction is more costly or requires more legal process to completethan simple exchanges of good for process. Embodiments recognize that insuch cases, the use of predictive information can assist successfultransaction of the asset through the post-auction stage, therebybenefiting the bidder, seller and auction forum.

In an example of FIG. 1, system 100 includes functionality that can beimplemented by processes, logical components and/or modules. In anexample of FIG. 1, system 100 includes a user interface 110, transactionlogic 120, an auction manager 130, an auction analysis component 140,and an auction database 170. The auction database 170 can retain recordsthat identify items that are to be auctioned, and/or items which areundergoing or have completed an auction.

In some implementations, the auction database 170 is part of aninformation resource system 180. As described below, one or more profilestores can be maintained with the information resource system 180 forpurpose of analysis and determining predictive information. The auctiondatabase 170 can retain records of auctions, including past auctions,ongoing or current auctions, and auctions that may be in the pre-auctionstate. In some implementations, the auction database 170 is coupled to aseller asset interface 174. The seller asset interface 174 enablesindividual sellers to create records 171 that identify an item forauction. The seller asset interface 174 can enable sellers to specifyinformation 163 that comprise individual records 171 of specificauctions at a given point in time. The information 163 can identify theitem being auctioned, the terms of sale, as well as other parameter suchas a reserve price (which can be hidden from prospective bidders). Inthis way, database 170 can retain records 171 of auctions in variousstates, including pre-auction, in-auction (auction initiated) andpost-auction (auction completed).

The user interface 110 can include separate functionality for sellers(seller interface component 112) and bidders (bidder interface component114). Generally, the bidder interface component 114 includesfunctionality for enabling bidders to view and participate in anin-progress auction. Accordingly, the bidder interface component 114 caninclude functionality for enabling a bidder to specify a bid 111, and tomonitor in real-time the auction update 113 (e.g., current value of anitem being auctioned, number of bids received, whether the reserve pricehas been met or not, updated top bid, etc.). The bidder interfacecomponent 114 can be provided as, for example, a webpage that includesfunctional elements for enabling the users to provide input (e.g., bids)and to view real-time updates for the in auction while it is inprogress. In variations, the bidder interface component 114 can beprovided as application content, such as through a display or panel of anetwork-enabled application. The bidder interface component 114 displayscontent for a particular auction, which can correspond to informationmaintained about the auction. The information can be derived from therecord 171 of the auction, and can include seller provided informationregarding the asset (e.g., pictures, text regarding the asset), as wellas event information corresponding to ongoing event such as bidsreceived during the auction and other information as selected throughimplementation or design.

The seller interface component 112 can also display auction content forthe seller. In some implementations, the functionality provided for theseller interface component 112 can resemble that which is provided forthe bidder interface component 114. For example, the seller interfacecomponent 112 can display auction content, including event information(e.g., top bid, bid increment, time remaining), on a real-time basis, sothat the seller can see, for example, the top bid, the number of bidsmade, the bid increment, or the number of registered bidders forparticular auction. In some variations, functionality provided to theseller can include the ability to lower the reserve price in appropriatesituations.

The transaction logic 120 can implement operations for progressing theauction towards completion. As shown by an example of FIG. 1, one ormore instances of transaction logic 120 can be implemented at a giventime in order to conduct an auction and to progress the auction towardscompletion. The transaction logic 120 can be coupled to database 170 toreceive information 163 from records 171 that are to be auctioned. Thetransaction logic 120 can include functionality to (i) initiate anauction, (ii) advance the auction towards completion, and (iii) end orcomplete the auction when certain conditions are satisfied (e.g., aftercompletion of time and/or satisfaction of completion rules). In additionto receiving and processing bids 111, the transaction logic 120 providesthe auction update 113 to the user interface 110 for participants andusers of the auction. The auction update 113 can include, for example,information such as a current price for the item being auctioned, anamount of time remaining in the auction, the number of bidders in theauction, whether the reserve price has been met, and/or comments fromother users. Other information that can be updated by the transactionlogic 120 and published through the user interface 110 includesidentifiers for active bidders, recent bid amounts, current bidincrement (which optionally can change based on dynamic bid incrementadjustments), comments from other users, and information from otherauctions that may be in various states (e.g., pre-auction versusin-progress). The auction update 113 can be published through the userinterface 110 to the population of users, including through the sellerinterface component 112 and/or bidder interface component 114.

In some embodiments, each of the seller interface component 112 andbidder interface component 114 displays qualitative or quantitativecontent corresponding to, or determined from predictive information.Furthermore, the seller interface component 112 can displayseller-specific content determined from predictive information. Also,the bidder interface component 114 can display bidder-specific contentdetermined from the predictive information. The content determined fromthe predictive information can include, for example, a predictedtransaction price (e.g., the predicted final price an auction will closeat), or probabilities as to what different transaction prices theauction will close at (e.g., a high probability for low price, lowprobability for second and higher-price). Examples of predictiveinformation that can be displayed to the seller and not to the biddervia the seller interface component 112 can include a qualitative orquantitative prediction as to whether the reserve price will be met. Asa variation, the content determined from the predictive information caninclude a recommendation as to whether the seller should change thereserve price (e.g., lower the reserve). The recommendation can be madesubject to rules that govern when the seller can lower the reserveprice. The rules can be implemented as auction rules 133, implementedthrough the auction manager 130.

In some variations, the bidder interface component 114 can also displaycontent such as the likelihood that the reserve price for the auctionwill be met. However, as the reserve price is often maintained hiddenfrom the bidder, the predictive information regarding the reserve pricemay be displayed without displaying the sellers actual reserve price.

In an example of FIG. 1, the auction manager 130 monitors the progressof the auctions through multiple stages, and initiates instances oftransaction logic 120 and user interface 110 as necessary. Inparticular, the auction manager 130 triggers transaction logic 120 toinitiate a given auction, so that the auction progresses towardscompletion in accordance with a set of auction rules. The auctionmanager 130 operates to control execution of the transaction logic 120,to implement functionality such as when an auction transitions from apre-auction state into an active auction state, or when an auction is toend (e.g., subject to timer, or timer with conditions or rules).

The auction manager 130 also initiates instances of transaction logic120, and communicates auction rules 133 to the transaction logic 120 inorder to progress the corresponding auctions towards completion. Theauction rules 133 can also include completion rules, such as rules whichspecify conditions that affect the timing of when the auction is to end.For example, the auction manager 130 can implement completion ruleswhich specify when a particular auction is to be extended based on theoccurrence of a designated event (e.g., incoming bid is received at adesignated time period before the auction is to end without bids).

According to some embodiments, auction manager 130 also implements aprogrammatic bidding component 160 to generate programmatic bids 151 onbehalf of the seller. The programmatic bidding component 160 canimplement programmatic bids 151 in accordance with one or more auctionrules 133. For example, the programmatic bidding component 160 cangenerate bids 151 when the programmatic bid is under the reserve price.

In some variations, seller bids 109 can also be provided by the sellervia the seller interface component 112. For example, the seller bid 109can be inputted manually from the seller through the seller interfacecomponent 112 (or alternatively, through the dashboard component 154).The seller bid 109 can be received by the transaction logic 120, andused to update the top bid of the auction, subject to conditions such asthe top bid being maintained less than the reserve price.

According to some embodiments, one or more profiling components can beused to read data from one or more databases and/or data stores of theinformation resource system 180. The profiling components can useinformation, including historical auction activity, in order to predictoutcomes or parameters for a given auction.

In one embodiment, a profiling system 145 determines profiles forparticipants of the auction and/or the assets of a particular auction.In one implementation, the profiling system 145 can include a bidderprofiler 142 to develop a profile for each bidder of an auction. Thebidder profiler 142 uses information provided from the informationresource system 180 in order to develop bidder profile information forindividual bidders of a given auction. The individual bidders can beidentified by, for example, those bidders that registered for theparticular auction, or those bidders who submitted actual bids in thecourse of an auction. Thus, for example, transaction logic 120 cancommunicate the identity of an individual bidder to the bidder profiler142. The bidder profiler 142 can submit a query 143 that identifies theindividual bidders of an auction (e.g., ongoing or pre-auction stage),in order to obtain historical information 147 pertaining to theparticular bidder. The historical information 147 can identify, forexample, what kind of assets the bidder previously provided bids for,the highest bid submitted by each bidder per auction, the number oftimes the bidder won an auction, and/or the percentage of auctions thatthe bidder won. For assets such as real estate, the historicalinformation 147 can further be used to obtain, for example, the numberof times that the particular bidder won an auction, but failed to closethe transaction (e.g., transaction failed after auction closed butbefore transaction was completed post-auction).

In some variations, the bidder profiler 142 can also develop bidderprofiles from information that is external to the auction system. Thebidder profiler 142 can use, for example, (i) general information suchas a credit report, income etc., and/or (ii) specific information, suchas identifying what assets a particular bidder owns. For example, theexternal information may include identifying a particular bidder as anowner of multiple strip malls. If the asset being sold is a strip mall,the bidder profile can score or make positive determinations as to asuccessful auction outcome based on the information known about thebidder's assets. Thus, if the bidder owns similar assets (e.g.,real-estate properties), then the bidder can be scored in a manner thatreflects a more positive outcome for the auction.

As an alternative or addition, the profiling system 145 includes anasset profiler 144. The asset profiler 144 can operate to determinerelevant historical information about a particular asset of the auctiontransaction. For example, in the case of real property items, the assetprofiler 144 can obtain characteristics of the asset of the auction,such as the geographic location of the asset, the type of asset (e.g.,single-family home, commercial property, etc.), sub-categorization ofthe asset (e.g., number of bedrooms and baths, townhome or home with lotetc.), material characteristics (e.g., lot size, dwelling size), pricerange and/or any other material considerations that may affect the valueof the asset. In one implementation, the asset profiler 144 obtainsinformation 163 from the record 171 of the auction. For example, thetransaction logic 120 can communicate an identifier for the auctionrecord 171, from which the asset profiler 144 determines thecharacteristics of the asset. From the information 163, the assetprofiler 144 can determine the category and subcategory of theparticular asset. The asset profiler 144 can generate an asset query 148for the information resource system 180. The query 148 can identifycharacteristics for purpose of identifying comparable assets withsimilar characteristics. Results of the query 148 can be obtained frommultiple sources, including, for example, the auction database 170. Forexample, the query 148 can obtain from the auction database 170 theauction records for prior auctions in which the asset of the transactionhad the same or similar characteristics as that of the auction underanalysis.

Furthermore, examples recognize that the transactions for assets of realproperty can be obtained from information resources that are external tothe auction environment. Accordingly, some variations include providingthe information resource system 180 with an interface to other sourcesof information for assets. For example, the information resource system180 can include or be coupled to access information from public recordsregarding the sales or transactions of real estate in differentgeographic locations. This information can provide an additional sourceof information regarding, for example, the value of a real propertyasset.

Still further, the information resource system 180 can include sourcesfor determining market trends that are relevant to the particular asset.In the case of real-estate, the market trends can include determiningvaluations of properties of a particular kind and/or in specificgeographic locations (e.g., counties, neighborhoods, etc.). As anaddition or alternative, the information resource system 180 can alsoinclude Broker Price Opinions or Automated Valuation Models for purposeof determining valuation of real-estate assets. The asset profiler 144can utilize such external information to determine asset profileinformation 157, which further assists the determination of predictiveoutcomes for an auction.

The auction analysis component 140 can utilize profile information 155,157 from one or both of the bidder profiler 142 and asset profiler 144.Each of profile information 155, 157 can correspond to highly relevanthistorical information about individual bidders or comparable assets,respectively. The auction analysis component can use the profileinformation 155, 157 to determine one or more of predictive information165, reserve price input 163, and bidder assessment 161. The profilesystem 145 can also maintain profile stores 173, 175 for the biddersand/or assets respectively for further use in subsequent auctions inwhich the same bidders or similar assets are auctioned.

The bidder assessment 161 can form a quantitative or qualitativeassessment of the individual bidders of the auction. In determining thequantitative assessment, the auction analysis component 140 candetermine, from the profile information 155, one or more of thefollowing: the number of times the bidder exceeded the reserve price,the average and/or median of the bidder's highest bids across multipleauctions, the number of times the bidder won an auction, the bidder'sratio of auctions that the bidder won, and/or the highest bid made bythe particular bidder. For certain transaction type such as realproperty assets, the bidder assessment 161 can also identify the numberof times the bidder won the auction, but failed to close thetransaction. The bidder assessment 161 can provided as one score orrating, multiple scores ratings, or a qualitative evaluation (e.g.,“good bidder” or “bidder that typically exceeds reserve”).

The reserve price input 163 can be used to identify predictive and/orstatistical information about one or more reserve prices for theparticular auction. The reserve prices can include the existing reserveprice, or a hypothetical or possible reserve price (e.g., should suchreserve price be selected). In determining the reserve price input 163,the auction analysis component 140 can utilize one or both of profileinformation 155, 157. The reserve price input 163 can correspond to, forexample, one or more of the following: a recommended reserve price foran auction (e.g., an auction that is in a pre-auction state or which hasno reserve price); for different possible reserve prices, a statisticalanalysis as to the likelihood that the particular reserve price will bemet during the auction (or alternatively whether the seller will acceptthe highest bid); whether the selected reserve price of the sellershould be lowered (based in part on the likelihood that the selectedreserve price will fail to be met). In more detail, the recommendedreserve price as determined by the auction analysis component 140 cancorrespond to the optimal reserve price that weights chance of success(e.g., reserve price met) with value returned. For example, therecommended reserve price can be set to be the reserve price that has a50% chance of being met during the auction.

The determination of the recommended reserve price can be based on theasset profile information 157, which can incorporate the transactionprice of prior auctions (or prior real estate transactions as the casemay be), and/or prior reserve prices for similar assets. As an additionor alternative, the recommended reserve price can weight or otherwisefactor in information obtained from the bidder profile information 155.For example, the recommended reserve price can be increased if one ormore of the bidders is known to have consistently exceeded the reserveprice, or if one or more of the bidders has a history of providing a bidthat exceeds the reserve price by some percentage amount. Likewise, therecommended reserve price can be lowered if the profile information 155indicates that the bidders of the particular auction have nothistorically met the reserve, or who are “lowball bidders.”

Statistical analysis of one or multiple reserve prices can similarly beobtained from asset profile information 157. For example, the assetprofile information 157 can identify comparable assets from multipletransactions in prior auctions, including the price at which such assetswere sold, the reserve prices in which the assets were provided at, andother information which may indicate the relative value or mosteffective reserve price of the assets of the prior auctions as comparedto the current auction. Furthermore, in some variations, the informationresource system 180 can utilize external records, in order to obtaininformation about asset such as real property assets, includingcomparable transactions of property items. Based on information obtainedfrom multiple possible data points, a statistical analysis of one ormore multiple reserve prices can be obtained. For example, for aparticular reserve price x, the auction analysis component 140 candetermine the likelihood of 80% success (e.g., the auction bidding willmeet the reserve price), while for a higher reserve price 1.20x, theauction analysis component 140 can determine the likelihood of 50%success. Additionally, the statistical analysis can be weighted toaccount for information known about the bidders, such as past biddinghistory of the bidders (e.g., the number of times bidders exceeded thereserve, the highest bid of each bidder, the median or average of eachbidder, etc.).

Other predictive information 165 can also be determined by auctionanalysis component 140 using profile information 155 and/or 157. Thepredictive information can include, for example, the most likely price(or highest bid) of the transaction, or an assessment as to whether theauction will be successful given the likely top bid and the currentreserve price. The asset profile information 157 can be used toidentify, for example, comparable assets in prior auctions, in order toidentify what other assets with similar characteristics have received interms of bids, highest bids, or eventual sale price. Additionally,information resource system 180 can include external sources, such asrecorded transaction prices for real property in a given geographiclocation, to determine valuation. The auction determination componentcan determine the predictive information 165 for comparing, for example,the listed reserve price to one or more of (i) the valuation of the realproperty, and/or (ii) the high bid(s) received for comparable assets inother auctions or in offline transactions.

Still further, in a variation, the assessment as to whether the auctionwill be successful can further incorporate information from the bidderprofile, including information indicating whether one or more biddershas a tendency to win the auction at or over the reserve price. In thisway, the bidder profile information 155 can weigh or factor intodetermining predictive information 165 based on asset profileinformation 157.

The output of the auction analysis component 140 can be provided to theuser interface 110. However, according to some embodiments, at leastsome of the predictive information generated from the auction analysiscomponent 140 can be provided in a manner that is seller-specific orbidder-specific. Seller-specific predictive information can be displayedonly to a seller of the auction, while bidder-specific information canbe displayed only to the bidders of the auction. For example, sellerinterface component 112 can receive reserve price input 163. By way ofexample, the reserve price input 163 can correspond to a recommendationof a reserve price, or alternatively to a quantitative statisticalanalysis as to an auction outcome (e.g., reserve price met or not met)for different reserve prices. In some implementations, the reserve priceinput 163 can be displayed only to the seller to advise the sellerwhether the reserve price (which is typically kept hidden from bidders)should be lowered or not.

In connection with lowering the reserve price, some examples providethat the auction analysis component 140 can also recommend orprogrammatically implement a seller bid in order to raise the top bidtowards the reserve price. Likewise, in one implementation, only theseller receives bidder assessment 161, to indicate a score orqualitative assessment as to the quality of the bidders registered (oralternatively making bids) for the seller's auction. In still anothervariation, the bidder interface component 114 can display content fromthe predictive information that is specific for the bidder or class ofbidders. For example, bidders may view content corresponding topredictive information 165, displaying the chance that the auction willsucceed based on, for example, the reserve price (which may not bedisplayed to the user), the top bid, and the assessment of the otherbidders. Still further, the bidder interface component 114 can displayqualitative or quantitative information indicating the quality (e.g.,likelihood that individual bidders will follow through on bidding,meeting reserve etc.) of the other bidders that are participating in aparticular auction.

In some embodiments, the seller interface component 112 can be providedas a dashboard component 154. The dashboard component 154 can optionallybe displayed as a programmatic element that is separate from a browseror webpage. By way of example, the dashboard component 154 cancorrespond to a standalone application that accesses a network sitewhere the auction is hosted. In variations, the dashboard component 154can correspond to a plug-in, such as a plug-in component that operatesin connection with a browser, independent of the browser accessing ordisplaying a website of the auction. An example of a dashboard component154 is illustrated by FIG. 6. The dashboard component 154 can displayauction status information (e.g., auction status, top bid, whetherreserve price has been met, number of bidders, number of bids etc.).Additionally, in some variations, the dashboard component 154 candisplay predictive information provided by the auction analysiscomponent 140, including information corresponding to the bidderassessment 161, the reserve price input 163 and/or the predictioninformation 165. Still further, in some implementations, the dashboardcomponent 154 can be used by the seller to provide input, such as inputcorresponding to trigger a seller bid 109, or input that lowers thereserve price (LRP 119).

While an example of FIG. 1 utilizes historical information to determinebidder profile information and predictive information, someimplementations can utilize real time monitoring to anticipate orotherwise provide indicative information of bidder action. For example,bidder interface component 114 can include inactivity detector 116,which detects bidder activity that signals bidder interest, withoutaffirmative action in which the bidder places a bid. The bidder activitydetector 116 can, for example, detect the user monitoring a page onwhich the auction is provided, hovering over bid submission ‘button’ oricon, and/or placing a bid but withholding a submit action. In this way,the activity detector 116 can detect action other than bid submission.The activity detector 116 can record such activity information 117, andthe auction analysis component 140 can use the activity information indetermining one or more predictions for the auction. For example, theauction analysis component 140 can determine that there is a likelihoodof more bids being submitted based on one or more bidders performingactions that serve as markers for bidding interest (e.g., the bidderrepeatedly hovering over the bid submission button on a page of theauction), thus increasing the chance that the reserve price for theauction will be met. Furthermore, if the auction is already above thereserve price, the activity information 117 can indicate a likelihoodthat additional bidding will take place, and the auction analysiscomponent 140 can raise the anticipated top bid of the auction inpredicting the transaction price of the auction for either the seller orthe bidders.

Methodology

FIG. 2 illustrates an example method for determining a bidder profilefor purpose of providing predictive information for an auction. FIG. 3illustrates an example method for determining an asset profile forpurpose of providing predictive information for an auction. FIG. 4illustrates an example method for providing predictive information to aseller for purpose of enabling the seller to take action to successfullycomplete the auction. FIG. 5 illustrates an example method for detectingbidder activity that can be correlated to a bidder interest level forpurpose of predicting auction activity. Methods such as described byexamples of FIG. 2 through FIG. 5 can be implemented using, for example,a system such as described by an example of FIG. 1. Accordingly,reference may be made to elements of system 100 for purpose ofillustrating suitable components or elements for performing a step orsub-step being described.

With reference to FIG. 2, a set of bidders for an online auction oridentified (210). The bidders can be identified as those users whoregister as bidders for an auction. For example, some online auctionformats provide that bidders register for the particular auctionbeforehand (separate from registration with the auction service), andonly registered bidders of the particular auction can bid on a givenauction. In variations, the bidders can be determined from those userswho actually submit bids, or those users who view the page on which theauction is displayed. In one implementation, the identification ofbidders can be made when the auction is in a pre-auction stage (212).For example, for auctions of assets such as real property items, apre-auction stage can enable registered bidders to perform due diligence(e.g., view the property, inspect document title etc.). A time periodcan be specified, requiring bidder registration in order to bid for theparticular property. The bidder registration provided at this point canenable the identification of the set of bidders.

In a variation, the identification of bidders can be made while theauction is in progress (214). For example, those individuals who submitbids and who have registered with the online auction site can beidentified. Alternatively, those bidders whom can be identified by wayof programmatic identifier (e.g., stored cookie) or other online personacan be identified.

A profile for one or more of the bidders can be determined (220). In oneimplementation, the auction analysis component 140 can determine theprofile for the bidder based at least in part on historical activity ofthat individual in other auctions (222). For example, the auctionanalysis component 140 can scan the auction database 170 for auctions inwhich the individual bidder previously participated in. The historicalactivity that is identified for individual bidders can include, forexample: (i) the median or average of the high bid the particular bidderin prior auctions that the bidder participated in; (ii) the percentageor ratio of auctions that the bidder previously won; (iii) theparticular bidder's top bid in connection with the reserve price for aparticular auction, such as the percentage of the bidder's top bidversus the reserve price of prior auctions; and/or (iv) the percentageof the bidders prior auctions in which the top bid provided by thatbidder exceeded the reserve price.

In a variation, the profile for the bidder can be based at least in parton the post-auction record of the bidder (224). In particular, bidderswho have previously won auctions (e.g., provided the highest bid) can beevaluated based on their ability to actually complete the transaction ofthe auction when the auction is over. Embodiments recognize that in thecase of real property, for example, a closing process has to becompleted before the transaction is complete. The closing process caninclude financing, title, property inspection and other contingencies.Furthermore, the purchaser of a real property has to provide funds. Itis not uncommon for real estate transactions to fall through afteragreement is reached as to price, sometimes as a result of contingencyconditions, other time simply because one party failed to follow throughon his or her commitment. Bidders who have a record of being able tocomplete the transaction once the auction is complete can be viewed morefavorably to sellers, who are generally more interested in having thetransaction complete once the auction is over. Accordingly, the auctionanalysis component 140 can review auction records 171 of past auctionsin order to determine the post-auction record of individual biddersparticipating in a given auction. If the auction includes bidders whohave a strong record of post-auction closing, this information can becommunicated by way of, for example, a score or qualitative assessment,to the seller. In this way, the information can motivate the seller to,for example, lower a reserve price to maintain a good bidder.

Predictive information can be determined for an auction based on thebidder profile information (230). In one implementation, auctionanalysis component 140, for example, can use profile information 155about the particular bidder to determine predictive information aboutthe auction on an ongoing and real-time basis. The predictiveinformation, as determined by the auction analysis component 140, caninclude determining a qualitative or quantitative assessment as towhether the auction will succeed (232). This can include a determinationas to whether the auction will close above the reserve price. As analternative or addition, the determination as to whether the auctionwill succeed can include determining the likelihood that the winningbidder will complete the transaction (e.g., execute on the closingprocess, provide payment etc.) once the auction is over. For example, inthe case of real property assets, a determination can be made that oneor more bidders participating in the auction have a strong historicalrecord of closing the transaction for the real property asset once theauction is over. Alternatively, the determination can be made that oneor more bidders participating in the auction have a week historicalrecord of closing their winning auctions. Based on profile informationof the participating bidders, the auction analysis component 140 cancommunicate a determination to the seller as to whether the transactionwill likely close once the auction is over. This information can beuseful to the seller for a variety purposes, such as for purpose oftriggering the seller to lower the reserve price in order to maintain agood bidder's participation, or to maintain a reserve price at a setamount on the assumption that the winning bidder will likely not be ableto close the transaction in any case.

As an alternative or addition, the predictive information that isdetermined by the auction analysis component 140 can include the reserveprice predictive information (234). The reserve price predictiveinformation can identify one or more of the following: (i) whether theset reserve price at a given instance in the auction (or pre-auction) islikely to be too high or too low; (ii) a reserve price that is likely toattract bidding and result in closure of the auction; and/or (iii) astatistical determination as to whether a reserve price (or set ofreserve prices) will be met by bidding activity (or alternativelywhether the seller will accept the highest bid).

As still another alternative or addition, the predictive informationthat is determined by the auction analysis component 140 can includedetermining a predicted transaction price, such as provided by the topbid and the auction when the auction is over (236). The predictedtransaction price can be based on, for example, past bidding activity ofthe bidders participating in the auction. For example, the highest bidsprovided by individual bidders and prior auctions can be compared todetermine whether one or more of the bidders can be expected to exceedthe reserve price, and if so how much the bidder can be expected toexceed the reserve price based on their historical activity. The auctionanalysis component 140 can determine bidder profile informationcorresponding to, for example, the average or median high bid of eachbidder in their respective prior auction activity, the percentage oftimes when the individual bidder exceeded the reserve price, thepercentage by which the individual bidder exceeded the reserve price,and the ratio or number of instances when the bidder won an auction.

While an example of FIG. 2 describes the predictive information as beingdetermined from profiling bidders and their past auction activity,variations provide for the additional use of profiling the asset that isbeing auctioned. For example, prior transaction prices for similarassets can be compared either in the auction forum, or in a real-worldenvironment, in order to determine comparable transactions, comparableauction prices, and to further determine information such as whetherreserve pricing is realistic are likely to result in an auction sale.

The predictive information determined from the bidder profileinformation can be communicated to participants of the auction (240).For example, the auction analysis component 140 can communicatepredictive information to the seller interface component 112 or thedashboard component 154 (242). Predictive information for the seller caninclude, for example, reserve price recommendations and/orprobabilities, transaction price probabilities, and/or bidderassessments (e.g., indicator regarding the ability of the bidder toexceed reserve, likelihood that bidder will close transaction afterauction is over, etc.). As an alternative or addition, the predictiveinformation can be communicated to the bidder interface component 114(244). Predictive information communicated to the bidder interfacecomponent 114 can exclude some or all of the information communicated tothe seller interface component 112 (or dashboard component 154). Forexample, the predictive information communicated to the bidder interfacecomponent 114 can exclude specific or general information about thereserve price, such as whether the reserve price is too high or too low,or assessments about the different bidders participating in the sameauction. Predictive information communicated to the bidder interfacecomponent 114 can include, for example, (i) a predicted transactionprice (or probability of different transaction price), (ii) anassessment of some or all of the other bidders (e.g., indication ofwhether other bidders exceed reserve price typically, or informationabout the win loss ratio of other bidders etc.), and/or (iii) generalinformation about the reserve price, such as the likelihood that thereserve price will be met based on the profile information of bidders orthe asset of the auction.

With reference to FIG. 3, an auction forum can receive asset informationfrom the seller (310). For example, in an implementation of realproperty assets, the seller can specify an address and description ofthe real property asset. The description can include or correlate to acategory (e.g., residential home, single-family dwelling, commercialreal estate etc.) and one or more subcategories (e.g., number ofbedrooms, type of commercial property etc.). Based on the description, aset of characteristics are determined for the asset (312). For example,in the case of real property assets, the set of characteristics caninclude one or more of the following: the type of property (commercialversus residential), a subcategory of the property (e.g., condominium,single-family residence), a geographic locality of the property (e.g.,ZIP Code, or specific neighborhood within ZIP Code), materialcharacteristics used for valuation (e.g., number of bedrooms, number ofbaths, dwelling size, lot size, garage size, etc.), and the type oftransfer (e.g., sale by owner, short sale etc.).

The relevant historical information is determined for the asset based onthe set of characteristics (320). In this way, a comparable asset isidentified based on the set of characteristics for the asset specifiedfor auction by the seller (322). In one implementation, auction records171 or queried for recent auction transactions of assets (e.g., realproperty assets) having the same or similar set of characteristics. Asan alternative or addition, public records can be accessed and inspectedin order to identify transactions of assets (e.g., real property assets)having the same or similar characteristics.

In addition to using historical information for the asset, the assetprofile can also be based on externally determined information, such asrelevant pricing trends for similar assets (e.g., based on property typeand geographic location). Further in the case of real property assets,the external information can include, for example, the Broker PriceOpinion, Seller value and/or Automated Valuation Model pricing tools.

Predictive information can be determined for an auction based on thebidder profile information (330). In one implementation, auctionanalysis component 140, for example, can use asset profile information157 for comparable assets (having same or similar characteristics) todetermine predictive information about the auction on an ongoing andreal-time basis. The predictive information, as determined by theauction analysis component 140, can include determining a qualitative orquantitative assessment as to whether the auction will succeed (332).This assessment can include a probabilistic determination as to whetherthe auction will close at or above the reserve price. The determinationcan be based in part on the reserve price, as well as on historical dataindicating whether the valuation of the asset (as can be determined fromcomparable assets) exceeds the reserve price. The determination can alsobe based on whether comparable assets were auctioned successfully (e.g.,reserve price met).

As an alternative or addition, the predictive information that isdetermined by the auction analysis component 140 using asset profileinformation can include reserve price predictive information (334).Thus, the reserve price predictive information can be based on reserveprices, transaction prices, or valuations as determined fromtransactions of other auctions. The reserve price predictive informationcan identify one or more of the following: (i) whether the set reserveprice at a given instance in the auction (or pre-auction) is likely tobe too high or too low; (ii) a reserve price that is likely to attractbidding and result in closure of the auction; and/or (iii) a statisticaldetermination as to whether a reserve price (or set of reserve prices)will be met by bidding activity (or alternatively whether the sellerwill accept the highest bid).

As still another alternative or addition, the predictive informationthat is determined by the auction analysis component 140 can include thedetermination of a predicted transaction price (336). The predictedtransaction price can be based at least in part on the valuation of theasset. The valuation of the asset can be based on the transaction priceof similar assets that were previously auctioned in a recent timeperiod, and/or similar assets that were transacted in a non-auctionforum.

The predictive information determined from the asset profile informationcan be communicated to participants of the auction (340). For example,the auction analysis component 140 can communicate predictiveinformation to the seller interface component 112 or to the dashboardcomponent 154 (342). Predictive information for the seller can include,for example, reserve price recommendations and/or probabilities,transaction price probabilities, and/or bidder assessments (e.g.,indication in the ability of the bidder to exceed reserve, likelihood ofbidder closing transaction after auction is over, etc.). As analternative or addition, the predictive information can be communicatedto the bidder interface component 114 (344). Predictive informationcommunicated to the bidder interface component 114 can exclude some orall of the information communicated to the seller interface component112 (or dashboard component 154). For example, the predictiveinformation communicated to the bidder interface component 114 canexclude specific or general information about the reserve price, such aswhether the reserve price is too high or too low, or assessments aboutthe different bidders participating in the auction. Predictiveinformation communicated to the bidder interface component 114 caninclude, for example, (i) a predicted transaction price (or probabilityof different transaction price), and/or (ii) an indicator for a reserveprice.

With reference to FIG. 4, a seller can be provided predictiveinformation (410). For example, the predictive information can beprovided by the auction analysis component 140, providing output throughthe dashboard component 154, and/or through the seller interfacecomponent 112. As mentioned with other examples, predictive informationcan include input about the reserve price (which can be selected by theseller or recommended programmatically), a predicted transaction price,one or more probabilistic outcomes as to whether the auction will closeafter the auction is successfully completed, and/or bidder assessments(e.g., evaluations as to what individual bidders will bid or individualbidders will close the transaction after the auction is complete).

As mentioned with an example of FIG. 2, the predictive information canbe based on bidder profile information (412). As an addition oralternative, the predictive information can be based on auction assetinformation, as shown by an example of FIG. 3 (414).

Based on the predictive information, the auction analysis component canmake a recommendation as to the reserve price selection or adjustment(420). The recommendation can be to, for example, a single reserve pricethat balances the risk of the auction will not be successful againstmaximizing the revenue for the seller. For example, the recommendedreserve price can correspond to a determined medium or average forcomparable assets. As another example, the recommended reserve price cancorrespond to a median or average for comparable assets, but weightedbased on bidder profile information of individual bidders who areparticipating in the auction. Still further, the recommended reserveprice adjustment or selection can be the form of a statistical aprobabilistic output, were multiple possible reserve prices aredisplayed to the user, along with a percentage probability (orqualitative likelihood) as to whether the reserve price will be met.

The user can then perform an action in response to receiving thepredicted information. In one implementation, the action performed bythe seller can include lowering the reserve price. An interface withinput functionality can be provided to the seller to enable the sellerto lower reserve price (430). For example, the user can provide input(see LRP 119) through the seller interface component 112 or dashboardcomponent 154 (432) to lower the reserve price of the auction. Thereserve price lowering can be performed at either a pre-auction orauction stage for the particular asset. Examples recognize that in manyauction formats, the reserve price is not published to the bidders, butremain secret privy to the seller. Thus, the reserve price adjustmentcan correspond to an interaction between the seller and, for example,the auction manager 130, via the dashboard component 154 and/or sellerinterface component 112.

As an addition or alternative to lowering the reserve price, the sellercan perform other actions in response to receiving predictiveinformation. For example, the seller can generate one or more sellerbids, in anticipation that once bidding begins, the active bidders willlikely exceed the reserve price. In this example, the determination canbe based on bidder profile information for one or more registeredbidders of the particular auction. For example, the bidder profileinformation can identify one or more bidders whom are deemed aggressivebidders, and the presence of bidding activity can generate additionalbids from the aggressive bidders.

With reference to FIG. 5, certain non-bidding activity of individualbidders can be detected through the bidder interface component 114(510). For example, as described with an example of FIG. 1, the bidderinterface component 114 can include an activity detector 116 thatdetects certain activity of the user. By way of example, the detectedactivity can include a mouse over (512), a page view (514), and/or otherinteractivity with an interface on which it auction is provided (516).In the latter instance, bidders can be detected as selecting links toviewing images of the asset being auctioned, entering biddinginformation without submitting the bid, and/or performing other taskssuch as chatting through the auction site with other bidders or theseller.

The non-bidding activity of the individual bidders can be correlated toan interest metric (520). In one implementation, the auction analysiscomponent 140 correlates the detected non-bidding activity to somemetric of interest which is indicative of an amount of interest byindividual bidders who are participants of the particular auction. Themetric can be determined to be specific for an individual bidder, or canbe indicative of the interest level of the bidders when viewed as agroup. For example, a high interest by one or two bidders in a set ofmultiple registered bidders can reflect the interest level of allbidders. In this context, the interest metric can be high when multiplebidders have high activity levels (even when some bidders do not havehigh activity levels), as multiple bidders are needed to increase theprice in an auction. Thus, the interest metric can reflect a highoverall interest level when multiple bidders have high activity levels,under the assumption that a select set of bidders can provide sufficientbidding activity to meet and/or exceed the reserve price.

As an alternative or addition, the determined interest metric can bespecific to individual bidders. For example, if a group of bidders areregistered for a particular auction, non-bidding activity can bedetected for each bidder in the group, and the corresponding metric canbe determined specifically for each bidder.

The interest metric can be communicated to one or more participants ofthe auction (530). In one implementation, the interest metric iscommunicated to the seller (532). As an alternative or addition, theinterest metric is communicated to one or more of the bidders (534). Theinterest metric can be representative quantitatively or qualitatively,and can represent one or more bidders anonymously or as a group. Forexample, a user interface feature provided as an interest bar thatfluctuates to reflect value can correlate an amount of non-biddingactivity by individual bidders, or by bidders of the group as a whole.The communication can indicate to the seller the likelihood that a bidwill be forthcoming. If, for example, there is a lack of interest in theauction based on non-bidding activity, the seller can elect to lower thereserve price, and/or generate a seller bid for purpose of generatinginterest and activity in the auction.

As an alternative, the detection of non-bidding activity can be keptsecret from both seller and bidders. Rather, a programmatic componentssuch as the auction manager 130 can be signaled to initiate activity,such as seller bids 151, in order to stir interest for the auction whenthere is a lack of bidding and non-bidding activity (e.g., indicatinglack of interest in the auction).

As shown by examples described above, the detection of non-biddingactivity can be used as a signal to generate activity in the auction,and/or to perform other actions such as lower the reserve price.

Dashboard

FIG. 6 illustrates an example of a dashboard for use by a seller tomanage one or more auctions. A dashboard can be generated by clientapplication that operates on the user (seller) terminal. The clientapplication can correspond to a standalone application, a plug-incomponent or extension of another program. With reference to an exampleof FIG. 1, the dashboard component 154 can operate on a seller terminalto generate output corresponding to a dashboard 600. The dashboardcomponent 154 can receive input from the seller (e.g., via the sellerinterface component 112) corresponding to an identifier of the seller.The dashboard component 154 can communicate the identifier to a backendcomponent of the auction forum, which in turn communicates outputprovided by the transaction logic to the dashboard component 154. Theoutput can identify multiple auctions of the seller, including auctionsthat are in a pre-auctions stage, in-progress stage, or post-auctionstage. Each auction can be associated with a record and informationprovided by the auction record, including current event information, canbe obtained by the dashboard component and outputted as part of thedashboard 600.

In an example of FIG. 6, the dashboard component 600 is shown in tabularform. Other data formats and structure can be used to presentinformation for the seller dashboard. In the example provided, dashboard600 includes columns that can correspond to, for example: the seller'sassets 610, the current or top bid 620, the number of bids (includingdelineation of seller bids) 630, the reserve price 640, and the auctionend time 650 (which can be variable depending on auction rules).

Additionally, dashboard 600 can include information that correlates toor is based on predictive information. By way of example, dashboard 600includes a suggested reserve price 612, a bidder score 614, and aprobability score 616. The suggested reserve price 612 can be determinedfrom the profile information (as described with an example of FIG. 2)and/or asset profile information (as described with an example of FIG.3).

In the example provided, bidder score 614 represents a quantitativeassessment of one or more bidders that are participating in a particularauction of the seller. In the example provided, the bidder scores forthe bidder with the highest score is displayed, as well as the averagebidder scores for all bidders that are registered for the auction.Numerous variations can be made to how individual scores are displayed,including for example, displaying the bidder score for all biddersregistered for the auction. In one implementation, the bidder score isbased at least in part on a track record of the bidder, as provided bythe bidder's performance in prior auctions. The bidder score can reflectthe probability (based on historical auction performance) that aparticular bidder or bidders will provide a bid that exceeds the reserveprice. In another implementation, the bidder score can reflect at leastin part the track record of the particular bidder or bidders in terms ofwinning an auction that closes above the reserve price. Still further,as another example, the bidder score can reflect at least in part thetrack record of the particular bidder or bidders in terms of closing thetransaction once the auction has been won. For example, in the case ofreal estate assets, once the auction is won, the real estate transactionstill need to go through a closing period, were contingencies areremoved, inspections are passed and the terms of the transaction arecompleted. The bidder score can reflect the probability that aparticular bidder or bidders will complete the post-auction closingprocess, based on past historical data.

The probably score 616 can indicate the probability that the auctionwill close with the top bid that is above the reserve price. As anaddition or variation, the probability score 616 can reflect whether theauction will close and the subsequent transaction will be completed inthe post-auction stage. The probability score can be based on theprofile information of the bidder (as described with an example of FIG.2) and/or the profile information of the asset (as described with anexample of FIG. 3).

As another example, dashboard 600 can include a column for predictedclosing price 622. The predicted closing price 622 can be based in parton the asset profile information. Specifically, the valuation of theasset can be determined from auction results of similar assets, and/ormarketplace valuations of similar assets. Other factors that can weightor otherwise contribute to the determination of the predicted closingprice can include bidder profile information. For example, if theprofile information for one or more of the bidders that are registeredfor an auction indicates a tendency to “lowball” an asset, then thebidder profile information can be used to weight the predictedtransaction price downward. Likewise, if the bidder profile informationindicates bidders who typically exceed the reserve price and areaggressive, the selected reserve price can be weighted above what wouldbe expected from the valuation.

Still further, an example of FIG. 6 illustrates the dashboard 600 toinclude an auction success probability column 624. The auction successprobability 624 can provide a qualitative assessment (e.g., “good”“Fair” “poor”) of whether the auction will succeed. The success of theauction can correlate to whether the top bid is expected to exceed thereserve price, as determined from the profile information (as describedwith an example of FIG. 2) and/or the asset profile information (asdetermined with an example of FIG. 3).

Furthermore, in some embodiments, the dashboard 600 can be interactive,and operable to receive input. In the example provided, the reserveprice column 640 can be interactive to enable the user to lower thereserve price. For example, the user may enter a new lower reserve pricethan the one provided in the column 640. Additionally, in somevariations, an interactive column 642 may be provided to enable the userto generate a seller bid. The generation of the seller bid may besubject to rules, such as the seller bid being provided as a top bidthat is below the reserve price.

Example Auction Interface

FIG. 7 illustrates an example of an auction interface that incorporatesthe use of predictive information. An auction interface 700 cancorrespond to a webpage, provided at a network site that hosts an onlineauction forum. In the example provided, the auction interface 700identifies a particular asset 710, and the auction is shown in theactive auction state (when bids are received). Some content provided onthe auction interface 700 can be shared between seller and bidder. Forexample, the information about the asset (e.g., a home), includingimages and text, can be displayed for all users, including bidders andthe seller. Additionally, event information, such as the top bid,history of bids, the participating bidders, the bid increment, the timeremaining, and other information can also be displayed for allparticipants of the auction. An indication of whether the reserve pricehas been met or not can also be shown to both bidders and the seller.However, in some implementations, the auction rules may preclude thebidders from knowing the reserve price.

In one implementation, predictive information is used to displaycorresponding content to the seller, but not to the bidder. Sellerpredictive information 720 can include, for example: (i) a reserve pricerecommendation 722; (ii) a prediction as to whether the auction willclose above the reserve price 724; (iii) an assessment of one or more ofthe bidders, such as an assessment of the high bidder 726 (the bidderwith the top bid) or alternatively the highest bidder rating score 728(the bidder with the highest score); (iv) a predicted transaction price732; and/02 (v) an indication 734 of the probability that the auctionwill close above the reserve price, but fail in the post-auction stage(e.g., due to the bidder profile information indicating high bidderhaving previously performed as such).

In the example provided, buyer predictive information 740 can include,for example a transaction price prediction 742. Other examples ofpredictive information for the buyer can include an indication as towhether the reserve price will be met, indications of other biddersperformance etc. As shown by an example of FIG. 7, the predictiveinformation displayed for the seller can vary significantly from thatshown to the buyer.

Computer System

FIG. 8 is a block diagram that illustrates a computer system upon whichsome embodiments described herein may be implemented. For example, inthe context of FIG. 1, system 100 may be implemented using one or moreservers such as described by FIG. 8. Likewise, methods such as describedwith FIG. 2 through FIG. 5 can be implemented using a computer or serversuch as described with FIG. 8. Further, a dashboard (FIG. 6) or sellerinterface (FIG. 7) can be displayed using a computer or server such asshown with an example of FIG. 8.

In one implementation, computer system 800 includes processor 804,memory 806 (including non-transitory memory), storage device 810, andcommunication interface 818. Computer system 800 includes at least oneprocessor 804 for processing information. Computer system 800 alsoincludes the memory 806, such as a random access memory (RAM) or otherdynamic storage device, for storing information and instructions to beexecuted by processor 804. The memory 806 also may be used for storingtemporary variables or other intermediate information during executionof instructions to be executed by processor 804. The memory 806 may alsoinclude a read only memory (ROM) or other static storage device forstoring static information and instructions for processor 804. Thestorage device 810, such as a magnetic disk or optical disk, is providedfor storing information and instructions. The communication interface818 may enable the computer system 800 to communicate with one or morenetworks through use of the network link 820 (wireless or wireline). Thecommunication interface 818 may communicate with bidders and auctionparticipants using, for example, the Internet.

Embodiments described herein are related to the use of computer system800 for implementing the techniques described herein. According to oneembodiment, those techniques are performed by computer system 800 inresponse to processor 804 executing one or more sequences of one or moreinstructions contained in memory 806. Such instructions may be read intomemory 806 from another machine-readable medium, such as storage device810. Execution of the sequences of instructions contained in memory 806causes processor 804 to perform the process steps described herein. Inalternative embodiments, hard-wired circuitry may be used in place of orin combination with software instructions to implement embodimentsdescribed herein. Thus, embodiments described are not limited to anyspecific combination of hardware circuitry and software.

Although illustrative embodiments have been described in detail hereinwith reference to the accompanying drawings, variations to specificembodiments and details are encompassed by this disclosure. It isintended that the scope of embodiments described herein be defined byclaims and their equivalents. Furthermore, it is contemplated that aparticular feature described, either individually or as part of anembodiment, can be combined with other individually described features,or parts of other embodiments. Thus, absence of describing combinationsshould not preclude the inventor(s) from claiming rights to suchcombinations.

What is claimed is:
 1. A method for conducting an auction in an onlineauction environment, the method being implemented by one or moreprocessors and comprising: developing a profile of one or more users ofthe online auction environment, the one or more profiles of each of theone or more users being based on historical auction activity of thatuser; monitoring an auction of the online auction environment that is inprogress; detecting, for at least one of the one or more users, anon-bidding interaction with a corresponding bidder interface componentwherein the non-bidding interaction with the corresponding bidderinterface component comprises at least one of: hovering over a bidsubmission button of the bidder interface, entering a bid into thebidder interface and withholding a submission action, and monitoring apage on which the auction is provided; and determining, while theauction is in progress, a prediction of whether the auction will besuccessful based at least in part on the one or more profiles of the oneor more users that are participating in the auction and the least one ormore non-bidding interactions, wherein the one or more users are biddersof the auction.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining theprediction of whether the auction will be successful includesdetermining the prediction corresponding to at least one of (i) whethera top bid for the auction will exceed a reserve price for the auction,or (ii) whether a transaction of the auction will be completed after theauction is complete.
 3. The method of claim 1, further comprisingcommunicating with a seller of the auction to suggest a reserve price ofthe auction based on the prediction.
 4. The method of claim 3, furthercomprising communicating with the seller of the auction to lower thereserve price.
 5. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical auctionactivity of the one or more users of the online auction environmentincludes prior bidding activity of each of the one or more users.
 6. Themethod of claim 5, wherein developing the one or more profiles includesdetermining for one or more users one or more of a range, mean, ormedian of each user's bids.
 7. The method of claim 5, wherein analyzingthe prior bidding activity includes determining, for at least one of theone or more users, one or more of (i) a number of bids that user made inone or more prior auctions, (ii) a number of times that user provided abid that exceeded a reserve price of one or more prior auctions, or(iii) a number of times that user provided a highest bid in one or moreprior auctions.
 8. The method of claim 1, wherein developing the one ormore profiles includes generating a score for each user that assessesthat user as a bidder.
 9. The method of claim 1, wherein developing theone or more profiles includes making a determination as to whether eachuser previously provided a highest bid to win a prior auction, but thenfailed to complete a transaction of the prior auction.
 10. The method ofclaim 1, wherein determining the prediction includes outputting anindication of a probability that the auction will be successful for atleast one or more users.
 11. The method of claim 1, wherein the auctionis for a real-property asset.